Practical procedure for stability assessment and failure probability of cut slopes in the Tijuana urban area, Mexico Procedimiento práctico para evaluar la estabilidad y probabilidad de falla de taludes de corte en el área urbana de Tijuana, México

Abstract

Slope failures in the Tijuana urban area destroy a large number of structures and infrastructures every year, producing large losses in various sectors of the economy. In this paper, a practical procedure is presented to evaluate the stability of cut slopes in a sector of the urban area, based on existing information about the study area, and the judgment and experience of the authors. This procedure allows determining the safety level of slopes with different geometries, seismicity and saturation conditions, as well as estimating the probability of occurrence of instability phenomena, based on a correlation between safety factors and the annual probability of failure, or by applying a probabilistic model derived from historical records of past failures. The application of the approach and procedure in some real cases show that they are feasible and could be a very useful tool both for the design of slopes and for the correction of the failures that occur in these earth structures.