Determination of return periods using probability distribution fitting for the La Playa Norte de Santander weather station.

Determinación de los periodos de retorno utilizando el ajuste de distribución de probabilidad para la estación meteorológica de La Playa Norte de Santander

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María Angélica Álvarez-Bayona
Agustín Armando MacGregor-Torrado
Abstract

The estimation of return periods is developed for maximum rainfall durations of 1 day, 2 days and successively larger
continuous peaks, up to 1 year duration sizes. They are indispensable to determine the maximum annual precipitation depths according to the best adjustment of the probabilistic distributions and are very useful for the development of the different hydrological studies required by a region. The purpose of this research is to determine the return periods of the maximum annual precipitation in a 24-hour period, of the La Playa meteorological station in Norte de Santander, for which the frequency analysis was carried out by means of the goodness-of-fit test, Chi-square, having as null hypothesis a normal distribution, which was accepted. Subsequently, the Minitab software was used to analyze the type of distribution of the data, establishing that the normal, lognormal, Weibull, logistic, Gamma and extreme value by maximums fit them.

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