Model analysis of survival estimates for retention time college students Francisco de Paula Santander University Modelos estimados de análisis de supervivencia para el tiempo de permanencia de los estudiantes de la Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander

Abstract

The article shows factors associated with college desertion. The survival analysis technique allowed to perform a study with students from different programs at the Francisco de Paula Santander University, considering the events: semester, abandonment, punishment, punishment - abandonment. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimator [1], the survival function for each event of interest was estimated and desertion models whose variables were significant at 10% using the semiparametric method of Cox [2] were determined. The verification test of proportional hazards, residual figures of Schoenfeld [3] and influence were used as statistics tools to explain the survival of the students. Results of the survival functions have revealed that the management of pre-concepts in science (precalculus, chemistry, physics) is a factor that increases the risk, students wishing to study other programs, as well as those who have received any punishment have greater tendency to abandonment. Lower scores on tests and no pre-concepts management, as well as loss of employment of parents and psychoactive substance use are at greater risk of abandonment. Graduate students show high risk of desertion due to socioeconomic factors or non-completion of thesis; four determinants were identified as risk ratios through the Cox regression model [2], individual factors, socioeconomic factors, academic factors and institutional factors and a factor determined from perceptions associated with aptitude and attitude of the teacher.