Analysis of factors associated to the exponential growth of daily covid-19 cases during the first epidemiological wave in Brazil Análisis de los factores asociados al crecimiento exponencial de los casos diarios de Covid-19 durante la primera ola epidemiológica en Brasil

Abstract

Brazil is characterized by being one of the countries with the most confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the world. Therefore, studying periods of exponential growth is important since one of the characteristics that has most affected the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic is the exponential growth of daily infections. This work focuses on estimating these periods during the first epidemiological wave of cases reported daily in Brazil, and analyze their associated factors, using deterministic and statistical methods, whit the help of Excel and Statgraphics. The existence of 6 periods of exponential growth, of which the smallest period has a range of 4 days, while the biggest has a range of 6 days. The highest and lowest infection rates were k_1=0,3658 and k_2=0,1768, respectively, with ranges of 4 and 5 days. The main factors that influenced the exponential spread were: irregular compliance whit social isolation; social protests defending and against the government in turn; the lack of restriction on vehicular traffic on public holidays; and also, fake news and promises of miracle cures.